Criteo finds 22-day Singles' Day journeys as AI ads spread
Q4 conversion rose despite flat traffic in Southeast Asia. Criteo's data puts the emphasis on early discovery and measurable acquisition.
Criteo has a counterintuitive finding about Southeast Asia's year-end shopping season: consumers take longer to decide what to buy, but are more likely to complete a purchase once they reach an online retailer. For brands preparing for 11.11 and 12.12, that shifts attention from the checkout itself to the weeks of comparison that precede it.
The advertising technology company released its regional findings on October 29, drawing on Q4 2025 commerce data from its 2026 Year-End Shopping Decoded report. Criteo is connecting the results to a more recent advertising opportunity: reaching consumers through conversational AI before they arrive on retail sites. The distinction matters because the shopping results predate the rollout of ChatGPT Ads in Southeast Asia.
Table of contents
Jump to each section:
- Why conversion rose while traffic stayed flat
- Double days reward decisions made earlier
- ChatGPT ads enter a longer discovery journey
- What marketers should know before 11.11
Why conversion rose while traffic stayed flat
Criteo's analysis points to stronger purchasing activity rather than an influx of new website visitors. Across Southeast Asia, online retail traffic was broadly unchanged year on year, while revenue and conversion increased. Singapore was a striking example: fewer visits coincided with more purchases, while Malaysia recorded substantial growth in revenue and conversion.
+20% conversion and +21% retail revenue were recorded in Southeast Asia during Q4 2025 versus a year earlier despite broadly flat traffic, according to Criteo.
This is not evidence that every visitor became more valuable or that advertising alone caused the improvement. It suggests marketers need to separate the traffic they acquire from the readiness of the shoppers who arrive.
Criteo also looked backward from purchases made around Singles' Day. The consideration period was much longer than a sale-day dashboard might suggest.
22 days was the average time between first viewing a product and buying it for Southeast Asian purchases made on November 10 to 12, 2025, according to Criteo.
In the preceding month, shoppers browsed several brands within the same retailer and even more across retailers.
3.8 brands at one retailer and 5.8 across retailers were browsed on average before Singles' Day purchases, according to Criteo.
The release compares that browsing with US and European Black Friday shoppers, though those samples cover different retail moments rather than a controlled like-for-like comparison.
The checkout moment can become more efficient even as the decision journey grows longer.
Double days reward decisions made earlier
Southeast Asia's year-end sales calendar is a series of connected opportunities, not a single shopping deadline. Criteo found that Singles' Day led Q4 shopping activity, while the night before major double-day events was also consistently important for sales.
+132% sales was the Singles' Day uplift against Criteo's baseline in Q4 2025, making it the region's biggest shopping day of the quarter, according to Criteo.
The average sales lift across the region's double days exceeded the corresponding lifts on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Even the eve of each double day ranked as the second-biggest sales day of its month. Running the entire campaign only on the discount date can therefore miss demand already moving toward purchase.
New customers were especially prominent at the major sale peak, although repeat buyers also contributed.
+130% first-time buyers was the Singles' Day increase over baseline, ahead of other major Q4 sale moments, according to Criteo.
Sale-day demand is partly won on the days when nothing is on sale.
That creates a measurement problem. Retail media may capture the final interaction, but brand discovery could have occurred much earlier on social, search, another marketplace or an AI assistant. Giving the last click all the credit risks undervaluing channels that helped a shopper form a shortlist.
ChatGPT ads enter a longer discovery journey
The new piece of this media mix is conversational discovery. OpenAI expanded ChatGPT Ads into Southeast Asia in September 2026, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Criteo says its integration supports ChatGPT advertising across global markets, offering advertisers a buying route alongside existing commerce media activity.
The timing is important. The Q4 2025 shopping patterns describe behavior observed before this regional ad rollout. They cannot show that ChatGPT Ads improved conversion, influenced brand comparison or generated the reported sales growth.
Criteo does report an early signal about discovery across its global ChatGPT advertising activity.
More than 80% of ChatGPT Ads-driven traffic comes from new customers globally, Criteo says. This is a traffic-composition claim, not a Southeast Asia conversion or incrementality result.
For brands, sponsored access and organic recommendations are different. ChatGPT ads are separately labeled placements and, according to OpenAI, do not influence its answers. Buying inventory is not a way to purchase inclusion in an assistant's recommendation.
The opportunity is to test whether a relevant sponsored message reaches shoppers while they are still evaluating alternatives. WPP Media's regional launch announcement also recommends controlled experimentation because early results have varied.
A new discovery channel can widen a shopper's shortlist without owning the transaction.
What marketers should know before 11.11
The useful response to these findings is not to move the entire retail budget toward AI. It is to reconsider when influence happens, how it can be measured and what a customer needs after clicking.
Start before the promotion. Build consideration between double days, not only when discounts begin. Criteo's purchase journeys suggest products may enter a shortlist weeks before a transaction.
Make product information useful. Shoppers comparing brands across marketplaces need clear specifications, pricing and distinctions. As Sukesh Singh, Criteo's managing director for Southeast Asia, put it: "Brands should make sure their product listings answer the questions shoppers will actually ask."
Connect discovery with checkout. Measure new-customer acquisition and assisted journeys alongside last-click conversions. Separate paid AI referral traffic from organic assistant visibility, and evaluate each against verified outcomes.
Test distinct media roles. Sponsored marketplace placements meet consumers already browsing retail listings; conversational ads may reach them at an earlier research moment. Compare them with consistent attribution windows and incremental measurement rather than clicks alone.
The bigger marketing question is how brands can build preference when shoppers can easily keep comparing alternatives. Retail media can help a product win at the shelf, while conversational interfaces create another place for a shortlist to form.
For advertisers, availability is not attribution. The test is whether earlier discovery produces incremental customers, not merely whether a new ad surface sends visitors to an existing checkout.
